Infy isnt growing anymore, shows this chart from an Isec report. If u see total active clients, this number peaked 2 quarters ago. Again, global economy is contracting, so this is perhaps a result of this. But interesting to note that potential market for Indian IT isnt the limitless ocean it used to be.
Total clients not growing, and billing rates headed down (since clients are re negotiating). 
More reason to be underweight Infy.
A chart from an HDFC PPT. THis is slightly dated, markets have rallied about 25% since then
Havent seen Sensex earnings estimate from broking firms for a while, so found this report from Ambit interesting. Didnt realise that estimates for Sensex earnings were pointing downwards 2 years in a row. Ambit thinks in both FY09 and FY10 earnings will fall.
That is a bold prediction. Most broking firms dont like to show fall in earnings for Sensex.
Check the sharp reduction in target price and earnings estimate by a broking firm for the top 2 retail firms in India - Pantaloon and Shopper's.
And now for the interesting part.
Lets take Pantaloon.
Old Target Price - Rs 520
New Target Price - Rs 184 (BTW, I have always wondered why dont brokers also put two decimals behind their price estimate. That would be more precise. After min trading tick is 5 paise).
Current market price - Rs 190
In other words, when the price fell from Rs 500 levels of Rs 190, Pantaloon must have been a screaming buy, or what?
Similarly for Shopper's
Old Target Price - Rs 360
New Target Price - Rs 66
Current market price - Rs 119
(this isnt too bad. There is long way to go to target price yet..)
Does anyone ever beat the index following such crap?
The Satyam episode just reinforces what I have said for a few years.
Equity analysts add litte value -- They are glorified journalists. Other than regurgitating what management says, they add precious little. Also, the world view is quite limited. They are unable to connect the dots, most of the time. To think that not one analyst had an inkling of this, quite shameful
Broking firms need to innovate - The way broking firms do research, or the value they aim to deliver to investors, hasnt quite changed in some 15-20 years atleast. This is one profession which simply hasnt innovated much, other than perhaps learning how to use Adobe maybe. There is so much more that can be done. Also, brokign firms really need to redefine what value they aim to deliver to clients..
FY10 forecasts are coming close to 5% range for India (2009 here is almost equivalent to what we call FY10). Looks quite dismal everywhere except China.
A report by Citi tries to make this interesting point - how low can corporate earnings go in India. The chart shows relation of overall corporate earnings to IIP. In 1997-99 slowdown, corporate earnings growth touch 0% to slightly negative twice. In 2001, corporate earnings will come down to -14%.
While the report does not make any forecasts, (brokers dont like -ve numbers, I guess), the inference is clear. While FY09 may be marginally positive (could be negative too, these two quarters will be a sharply down), sometime by 1H10, the 12 month rolling figure should be negative. Whether FY10 as a whole will be negative, too early to say
